Apple’s Terrible No Good Very Bad Earnings Warning

Apple’s Terrible No Good Very Bad Earnings Warning by John Gruber

The other factor is that the modern — that is to say post-iPhone — smartphone market is 11 years old. It’s maturing, and in a mature market people replace devices less frequently.

I have a lot more thoughts on the bad downgrade to the coming quarter that Apple just announced, but my thoughts are not that important nor interesting. However, the anecdotes that I see bear out what Gruber states above: people do not upgrade nearly as often anymore. Coupled with he rise of the discount carriers in the USA and Apple not really having a phone to compete at the lowest levels and you are going to continue to see bouncing sales.

It is possible that Apple’s revenues are going to flatten out quite a bit. You will not see as high of highs, but the coming quarters will be even more interesting from the perspective of what iPhones sales are going to look like going forward.

There are, obviously, options for Apple to drum up sales numbers but the better question is what this new, hopefully humbler, Apple is going to look like going forward.

Why It’s Okay To Do Less & Talk More

Why It’s Okay To Do Less & Talk More by Trevor McKendrick

I have definitely come around to the idea that it is OK to talk through ideas more than originally thought. This is the kicker:

And with every iteration of talking about the idea you actually understand the idea better. A new idea is this delicate thing, a mere thought floating in a single person’s head unprotected from criticism.

Ideas need other people to be tested.

Subscription Apps, Default Apps, and Cloud Services

1Password has received some negative press because of their push for more users to switch from purchasing the app outright to a subscription model and the use of their own syncing service. They have responded on Twitter in this fashion to see of the complaints:

On a recent episode of Accidental Tech Podcast, the hosts talked at length about some of the issues around this push from 1Password (and others) and, overall, are sympathetic to the needs of software developers for recurring revenue but are a little bit sour to the push toward more cloud services from software development partners. Panic, makers of Transit (my favorite SFTP and more software), has their own sync service and so does The Omni Group.

However, this proliferation of cloud sync services along with the continued push to never own software but need to continually pay a subscription has me rethinking some of the applications I use on a daily basis.

For one thing, I have an adverse reaction to paying a subscription for things. It doesn’t need to make sense, but I hesitate every time I am asking to pay, via a subscription, for a piece of software (even one I use often). I’m far more likely to search out alternatives at that point.

Another issue is that paying a subscription, especially to another vendor, requires maintaining correct payment information over time. When my credit card expires, I need to find all of the places I have used that card and update it. If I want to change my banking provider, then I need to search out all of those areas as well.

I pay Apple for iCloud storage and an Apple Music subscription. I pay Netflix for entertainment. I pay a VPS provider for my virtual server. After that, I pay for a lot of software but I pay once, use the software, and then purchase the next version the next time I am asked to pay. It is a one time purchase. I don’t need to maintain payment information. It is simple, low maintenance, and understandable.

I have the feeling we will continue to see more software vendors moving to subscriptions models (or trying it out), and so it has me looking hard and long at utilizing built-in apps on my Apple devices. Reminders, Notes, and some others might have a more prominent places in my life especially with the ability to lock Notes, I might be able to move off of 1Password if it ever comes to that point.

Moving from OmniFocus to Reminders would be more of a challenge.